Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $95,646$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,037.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(97,037.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,091$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(645 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,066.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,066.0\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,237$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $122,392$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,568.8}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(127,568.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,258$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(248 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,640.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,640.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $65,326$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,101$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,728.1}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(15,728.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $225$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227.4}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 23.7)}}\) (asimptote \(227.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,720$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $857$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(118 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{851.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(851.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(5.26 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 10.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14.1\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $546$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,038$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(94.6 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,254.9}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 60.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,254.9\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $111$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.58 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{351.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(351.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,384$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,377$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(30.2 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,688.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 76.1)}}\) (asimptote \(13,688.4\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{0.052t}\) (doubling rate \(5.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34.8}{1 + 10^{-0.100 (t - 21.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34.8\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,745$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,772$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(931 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,788.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,788.0\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $579$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(49.9 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{613.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(613.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,109$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,780$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(4.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,262.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,262.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $250$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(47.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{257.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(257.8\))
Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,407$ on 2020-05-01
