Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $95,646$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,037.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(97,037.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,091$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(645 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,066.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,066.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,237$ on 2020-05-01

Turkey

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $122,392$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,568.8}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(127,568.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,258$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(248 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,640.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,640.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65,326$ on 2020-05-01

Israel

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,101$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,728.1}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(15,728.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $225$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227.4}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 23.7)}}\) (asimptote \(227.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,720$ on 2020-05-01

Cyprus

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $857$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(118 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{851.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(851.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(5.26 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 10.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $546$ on 2020-05-01

United Arab Emirates

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,038$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(94.6 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,254.9}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 60.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,254.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $111$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.58 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{351.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(351.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,384$ on 2020-05-01

Kuwait

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,377$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(30.2 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,688.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 76.1)}}\) (asimptote \(13,688.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{0.052t}\) (doubling rate \(5.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34.8}{1 + 10^{-0.100 (t - 21.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,745$ on 2020-05-01

Philippines

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,772$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(931 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,788.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,788.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $579$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(49.9 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{613.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(613.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,109$ on 2020-05-01

Korea, South

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,780$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,262.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,262.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $250$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(47.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{257.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(257.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,407$ on 2020-05-01

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

China recovered 99%
Thailand recovered 87%
Korea, South recovered 81%
Taiwan* recovered 68%
Iran recovered 62%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 41%
Uzbekistan recovered 36%
Malaysia recovered 32%
Israel recovered 31%
Turkey recovered 19%

China

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,959$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.67 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,240.6}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,240.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,959.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 23.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,959.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $749$ on 2020-05-01

Thailand

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,960$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(748 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,876.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 18.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,876.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(19.1 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.5}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 10.0)}}\) (asimptote \(53.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $187$ on 2020-05-01

Taiwan*

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $429$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(70.6 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{424.9}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(424.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-01

Active

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-01

Kyrgyzstan

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $756$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(90.2 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{794.7}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 24.3)}}\) (asimptote \(794.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-05-01

Active

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $244$ on 2020-05-01